February 2007 Energy Update
Short-Term Energy Outlook http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
February 6, 2007 Release
Highlights
· The unseasonably warm temperatures in the United States and throughout most of the northern hemisphere through early January reduced the demand for heating fuels, leading to an easing of petroleum and natural gas prices. Between mid-December 2006 and January 18, 2007, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by about $12 per barrel to a low of $50.51 per barrel. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell from $8.67 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) on December 1 to a low of $5.56 per mcf on January 2. The turn to colder weather in the second half of January contributed to increasing crude oil and natural gas prices. In February 2007 the WTI crude oil price is expected to average $56.00 per barrel, and the Henry Hub natural gas price is projected to average $7.35 per mcf.
· We have lowered our price projection for WTI crude oil from our last Outlook. WTI crude oil, which averaged $66.00 per barrel in 2006, is projected to average about $59.50 per barrel in 2007 and $62.50 per barrel in 2008 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price). The Henry Hub natural gas price, which averaged $6.90 per mcf in 2006, is projected to average $7.10 mcf in 2007 and $7.60 in 2008.
· Total U.S. petroleum product consumption is projected to increase in 2007 and 2008 by 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. Lower projected prices in 2007, combined with projections for moderate economic growth and the assumption of normal weather, are the primary reasons for increased growth in consumption.
· Projections of U.S. heating fuel expenditures for the 2006-07 winter season have declined over the last two Outlooks, reflecting relatively warm winter weather from November through the middle of January. Average household heating fuel expenditures are projected to be $862 this winter compared to $948 last winter
NYC natgas spike underscores pipeline constraints Thu Jan 25, 2007 5:38pm ET
NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Natural gas prices tripled in the New York City spot market this week in the midst of a cold blast, underscoring the need for additional pipeline capacity for the key Northeast market, dealers said Thursday.
Spot natural gas prices for next-day delivery on Transco Zone 6 at the New York city gate <NG-NYCZ6> jumped to $30 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, more than three times Tuesday's price and their highest level in two years, traders and brokers said.......
Last month, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a project for a 182-mile gas pipeline that would deliver new gas supplies from Canada to the New York City area to ease the bottleneck.
The Millennium project was one of several lines approved by the FERC that comprise the "Northeast" project, worth around $1 billion and involving 265 miles of new pipe. The integrated projects are scheduled to go into service in November 2008, providing up to 525 million cubic feet per day.
A 'Gas OPEC'? Mostly a Pipe Dream by Jason Bush
Russian President Putin has spoken to Iran and Algeria about an alliance of natural-gas producers, but experts think it wouldn't work
"An interesting idea." That's what Russia's President Vladimir Putin, speaking at an annual press conference for Russian and foreign journalists on Feb. 1, called the possibility of a "gas OPEC"—an international consortium or organization that would co-ordinate gas prices the same way that OPEC regulates world oil prices. "We are already trying to coordinate our actions on the markets of third countries. And we also intend to do it in future," Putin added.
Ominous words for global energy consumers? Putin was quick to emphasize that Russia supports "co-ordination" in the gas market, rather than "the creation of some kind of cartel." And his brief comments on the matter hardly qualify as a serious policy statement. Still, the remarks come at a time when the idea of a "gas OPEC" has been increasingly generating interest—not to mention concern—around the world.
Putin's spoke a couple of days after the idea was raised by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, religious leader of Iran. During a visit by a Russian delegation on Jan. 29, Khamenei said that "by cooperating, our two countries could create a gas export organization similar to OPEC." The Ayatollah pointed out that between them, Russia and Iran own more than half the world's gas supplies.
Oil near $59, but rally loses steam http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSSP11628220070206
Tue Feb 6, 2007 11:52AM EST By Janet McBride
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil gave up early gains on Tuesday, steadying near $59 a barrel, as a cold snap in top consumer the United States failed to ignite the heating oil market and a $1 rally ran out of steam.
The onset of cold weather in the U.S. Northeast, the world's biggest heating oil market, and a shift in investment flows has lifted oil from a 20-month low of $49.90 on January 18 and brought it into the danger zone for consumer nations' economies.
U.S. "The market is looking for leadership in winter fuels and when heating oil didn't scream, but instead slipped from its early high and natural gas dropped, the run toward $60 could not be sustained," said Andrew Lebow, a broker at Man Financial. Crude oil (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 16 cents at $58.90 a barrel by 1641 GMT, having earlier touched a one-month high of $59.99.
WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Mild Temperatures in Northern US for February-April period
January 23, 2007 10:14 AM Eastern Time
WSI and ESAI issue an update of special interest to energy traders
ANDOVER, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (February-April). WSI expects this period to average warmer than normal across the northern two-thirds of the country, especially in the northwestern quarter of the country, with below-normal temperatures confined to the southern tier of states. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).....
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “While the late January pattern will be characterized by more frequent visits from Arctic air masses, our objective model guidance suggests that the recent pattern flip to a northeastern Pacific ridge may be temporary, possibly driven by the recent strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. We feel that a milder pattern will re-emerge by early or mid-February and will generally persist into March.”
ISO New England Reminds Consumers It’s Not Too Late to Make Energy Resolutions for 2007http://www.takecharge-ne.org/news/news_releases.html?news=full&news_id=1169495438
Power Grid Operator Provides Tips and Simple Steps to Help Consumers Become More Energy Efficient
HOLYOKE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ISO New England Inc., the not-for-profit organization responsible for the day-to-day operation of New England’s bulk power system and wholesale electricity markets, is reminding consumers to make energy efficiency resolutions for 2007 by logging on to the Take Charge New Englandsm Web site, www.takecharge-ne.org, for energy saving tips.
To help consumers jump start their efficiency efforts, ISO New England has created the “Test Your Energy IQ” quiz. The quiz, available at http://www.takecharge-ne.org/energy_quiz.html, tests consumer knowledge of home energy use and provides energy saving tips. These tips can become a part of consumers’ New Year’s resolutions to become more energy efficient, helping to save electricity and money both at home and at work.
The top five Take Charge New Englandsm resolutions(a) are:
1. Change Your Lighting – change your incandescent light bulbs and fixtures to energy efficient, ENERGY STAR®-qualified compact fluorescent bulbs and fixtures, which can save you more than $60 a year.
2. Buy ENERGY STAR® Appliances and Consumer Electronics – look for the ENERGY STAR® on household appliances and consumer electronics products. Qualified products use less energy without sacrificing quality or performance.
3. Activate Power Management Features on Your Computers –- ENERGY STAR® computers and monitors save energy only when the power management features are activated, so make sure to activate power management on your computer. Additionally, turn off your computer and monitor when not in use.
4. Control Your Climate – set your thermostat as high as possible in summer and as low as possible in winter. A suggested temperature range for summer is between 74°F and 78°F. In the winter, set your thermostat between 65°F and 68°F. Better yet, utilize ENERGY STAR® qualified heating and air conditioning equipment, ensure that your home is well insulated, doors and windows are ENERGY STAR qualified and weather sealed, and use a programmable thermostat.
5. Use Power Strips – plug home electronics, such as TVs and DVD players, into power strips; turn the power strips off when the equipment is not in use (TVs and DVDs players in standby mode still use several watts of power).
(a) Sources include Take Charge New Englandsm partner ENERGY STAR® and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Consumer’s Guide to Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
“The year 2006 was unprecedented not only in terms of setting a record for peak energy demand, but also in the growing recognition among policy makers and energy consumers that energy efficiency is a key to them lowering their bills, ensuring a more reliable energy system, and reducing the harmful emissions from power generation,” noted Susan Coakley, executive director of Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP), a non-profit organization that has partnered with Take Charge New Englandsm. “We join with ISO New England in reminding residents and businesses alike that they have the power to take control of their energy futures by taking advantage of energy efficient technologies and practices.”
Nuclear plant Indian Point's power level stable, spokesman says
February 6, 2007, 9:33 AM EST http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--indianpoint0206feb06,0,611928.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork
WASHINGTON (AP) _ The Indian Point nuclear power station in Westchester County was operating normally Tuesday morning, a day after low cooling water levels led to a declaration of an "unusual event" _ the lowest category of emergency.
Officials at the Buchanan, N.Y. facility blamed the low water level on a combination of cold weather, low tides on the Hudson River and debris clogging screens used to filter the water the plant draws in from the river.
Entergy Nuclear Northeast spokesman Jim Steets said Tuesday morning that the screens had been "backwashed" and water levels were no longer at a worrisome level, though he said he did not know precisely what the water level was.
Wall Street Green Trading Summit VI
(April 16 & 17 2007) Reuters Building 3 Times Square, New York City http://www.hedgeconnection.com/atlas/jump.php?url=www.hedgeconnection.com%2Fatlas%2Fevent_viewer.php%3Feid%3D2
2007 promises to be a year of accelerated market development for both emissions and renewable energy trading building on the success of the EU ETS and other trading initiatives. In New York City we have partnered with Reuters to launch our next phase in market development through our Wall Street Trading Summit. This annual event at their corporate headquarters will break new ground in the development of environmental financial markets.
Speakers from investment banking, hedge funds, venture capital, insurance, and the brokerage community will present on the trading opportunities in alternative energy, project finance, carbon market developments, REC trading and demand response programs.
Renewable Energy Teleconference Series http://www.acore.org/renewableenergyinfo/
Welcome to the monthly Renewable Energy Seminar and Teleconference Series brought to you by the American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE) in collaboration with the Renewable Energy Resources Committee of the American Bar Association SEER Section & Renewable Energy Committee of the Energy Bar Association.
These monthly seminars provide an opportunity to network and discuss the subject matter with renewable energy lawyers, policy makers, and business experts.
The programming is open to ACORE members, ABA members and all those involved in aspects of law, policy, business, or financing in the renewable energy or distributed generation fields.
In the February 14, 2007 teleconference, speakers will address "A New Framework for Developing and Financing Wind Energy Projects."
New York and New Jersey Energy Incentive Programs Workshop
For Federal Energy and Facility Managers http://www.eere.energy.gov/femp/newsevents/fullevent.cfm/events_id=2561
March 27, 2007 New York, New York
Hear about energy efficiency, renewable energy, and demand response program opportunities from representatives of NYSERDA, NJBPU, LIPA, FEMP, and GSA. Financial incentives and technical assistance are available to help support implementation of energy efficiency, load management, distributed generation, and renewable projects at your respective facilities. For more information see the workshop agenda (PDF 72 KB).Download Adobe Reader. FOR SECURITY PURPOSES, ALL ATTENDEES MUST REGISTER IN ADVANCE.
Register online. For more information, please contact Brian Magden, GSA, at brian.magden@gsa.gov or 212-264-0591.
Please reach out to Michael with any questions.
All the best,
Michael Sanfilippo
Director of Energy Services
Great Forest Inc.
(212) 779-4757